내용
Consistent with this hypothesis, cities in which multiple interventions were implemented at an early phase of the epidemic had peak death rates ≈50% lower than those that did not and had less-steep epidemic curves. Cities in which multiple interventions were implemented at an early phase of the epidemic also showed a trend toward lower cumulative excess mortality, but the difference was smaller (≈20%) and less statistically significant than that for peak death rates.
활용사례
This chart of the 1918 Spanish flu shows why social distancing works [출처: quartz 2020.3.12.]
But social distancing doesn’t have to be draconian. South Korea has adopted a modern version of the St. Louis model; the country never locked its citizens down or quarantined entire cities, but has still managed to slow the spread of the new coronavirus. In recent days, new infections have leveled off thanks in part to thousands of free daily tests and a coordinated government effort that closed schools, canceled public events, and supported flexible working arrangements. “Without harming the principle of a transparent and open society,” South Korea’s Vice Health Minister Kim Gang-lip told journalists in the South China Morning Post, “we recommend a response system that blends voluntary public participation with creative applications of advanced technology.”
확진자 줄었지만…전문가 “사회적 거리두기 최소 2주 더” [출처: 한겨레 2020.3.16.]
코로나19 확진자 증가 수가 15일 0시 기준 23일 만에 두자릿수(76명)로 줄면서, 주요한 방역 수단인 ‘사회적 거리두기’가 언제까지, 어떤 강도로 진행돼야 하는지에 대한 관심이 커지고 있다. 방역당국은 향후 감염 위험도 등을 분석한 뒤, 향후 사회적 거리두기의 강도 조절 등을 정할 것이라는 입장이다. 전문가들은 “대구를 중심으로 신천지예수교 신도 검사가 마무리되면서 보이는 착시 효과가 있는 만큼, 개학 연기 등을 포함해 최소 2주간은 더 유지해야 한다”며 경계를 늦추지 않아야 한다고 강조한다.
Update to Map: Modeling Social Distancing Effects, and Real-time Atypical Illness [kinsa data team 2020.5.6.]
It was clear that we needed to account for social distancing effects in our atypical illness detection. (You can read more about our atypical illness detection method here, and the approach accounting for social distancing is explained in detail within our preprint MedRxIV manuscript, under review at a leading scientific journal.) Briefly, we update our expected influenza forecast as follows: Reduce influenza transmission by a constant rate following social distancing policy interventions and behavioral changes (i.e. people choosing to avoid crowds) Flag anomalous illness levels in reference to the expected influenza levels with social distancing taken into account.
